Thursday, August 10, 2006

 

Polls Schmolls; Here's My Predictions

Forget the polls. They bounce around like one of those crazy balls you get in a gumball machine. I like to look at the interest being generated in a race, the consistancy of a candidates statements (without being refudiated by the experts), and a gut feeling I have about the particular race.

While not scientific, I have been fairly acurate on recent races. In 2004, I predicted the Holt/Lincoln race, to the final tally, four months out. At that time, most media projections were that Lincoln would win by 23%. I missed the Presidential race by two states, swithching the Wisconsin and New Mexico votes.

All told, I have as good of prognostication as any other dart board in the state.

So here goes with my early predictions:

Governor: Asa Hutchinson by 8 points.
Mike Beebe has been inconsistant with his message. The Arkansas Dem-Gaz has commented on several occassions about inaccuracies and flaws in Beebe's statements. Asa's team has been consistant on pointing out the Beebe mistakes while staying on message. It doesn't hurt to have one of the best grassroot campaigners in Arkansas history running just down the ticket.

Lt. Governor: Jim Holt by 12 points.
Jim's steady pace, grassroots campaigning and a solid Republican ticket will serve him well. While Bill Halter may have more money to spend (mostly his own), he is not gaining traction on his message. Jim has proven in the past that money is not the sole ingrediant to a strong campaign.

Attorney General: Gunner Delay by 21 points.
Gunner has found a solid message for which Dustin McDaniel has now legitimate answer. Gunner has a likable personality that does not exude the negatives which people associate with lawyers. Dustin's record with Remington Arms paints a picture of an opportunist. That will turn the voters off. That and people don't like the government messing with their firearms. Something about the 2nd Amendment and all that.

Secretary of State: Toss Up (Slight lean to Lagrone)
I am leaning towards Jim Lagrone on this one. I don't believe Charlie Daniels can recover from the ES&S fiasco. And Jim is doing all he can to insure that. Lagrone clean background shines when compared to Daniels and the cronyism in his background.

State Treasurer: No Call
There has been little to reference to either candidate in this race. Neither has taken the point on the trail to Little Rock. This race may come down to which party gets the most voters out. It is interesting to note that this race pits an African-American (R) against a woman (D). This should put all of the political scientists in the state in a tizzy.

Well, there you have it. I will revisit my predictions as we near the end of the race and give a final prediction.

How do you see these races turning out as we look with less than three months left?

Comments:
I will only address the most ridiculous of your predictions as they all sound more like pipedreams. I bet you also have the Hogs going 11-1 in the regular season with a sure national title shot. So you think Delay is going to have a 36 point swing in the next 2.5 months? Psychiatrists have a term for this: Delusional psychosis. These races are all going to be pretty close, with the exception of the Lt. Gov. race, where Halter's TV ads this fall will give him a double digit win. Back to the Delay-McDaniel race though, I know you want this to be the case but the truth of the matter is that with the failings of the Bush Administration and Asa's close ties to them, it is going to be hard for ANY republican to win in this state or any other. The best possible scenario is for WinRock to be reserrected sometime in the next month and jump back into the campain.
 
Who's being delusional?

The Razorbacks will have at least 4 losses.

The rest is wishfull thinking.

Remember, the field that the Dems have leading them currently is equal to the "Gang That Couldn't Shoot Straight."
 
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