Tuesday, September 12, 2006


Beebe's Numbers Evaporate

April 23, 2006 - Mike Beebe has an 11 point lead over Asa Hutchinson for Governor.
May 12, 2006 - Mike Beebe maintains his 11 point lead over Asa Hutchinson.
July 25, 2006 - Beebe still has solid lead at 10 points over Hutchinson.
July 26, 2006 - Rasmussen tightens Beebe-Hutchinson race to 7 points.
August 29, 2006 - Beebe leads Hutchinson by 8.8 points. Margin of error = 4.4. Race is now within margin of error.
August 30, 2006 - Stephens Media poll has Beebe at 21 point lead over Hutchinson.
September 5, 2006 - Business poll shows Beebe with 14 point lead.
September 12, 2006 - WSJ battleground poll shows Beebe lead all but evaporated: 3.3.
Mike Beebe has led in the polls through most of this race due to voter apathy and media apathy on his record in the early stages. Now that the Arkansas media is focusing on Beebe's record and the election is drawing near, citizens are beginning to realize that Beebe comes with more baggage than hope.
While Beebe's ads show him as a downhome country boy, they do not show him with much leadership experience. Hutchinson's ads show real leadership experience, equal Arkansas roots, and a vision for all Arkansans - rural and urban.
I predicted on August 10 that Asa Hutchinson would win the Governor's race by 8 points. I stand by that prediction at this point. With Mike Beebe's lead evaporating, even the ever obnoxious John Brummett is wavering in support. Beebe losing Brummett would be like Johnson losing Cronkite.
Asa and his campaign have shown a steady march towards November. No lurching left or right with the polls. No flipping on issues. No shady characters coming out of the woods. And, no one is jumping ship. That is the sign of a quiet confidence that people look for in a leader.

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